Based on the following assumptions:
- BSV depreciates by 26% annually in USD terms.
- BTC appreciates by 100% in USD terms, increasing to $200,000 after 1 year.
- We will use multiple rounds of borrowing and swapping to achieve 2x the original BTC collateral (2 BTC total).
Updated BSV Price After 1 Year:
- Initial BSV Price: $58.
- Annual BSV Depreciation (USD): 26%.
- Final BSV Price (USD): Final BSV Price=58×(1−0.26)=58×0.74=42.92USD.
Final BSV Price=58×(1−0.26)=58×0.74=42.92 USD.\text{Final BSV Price} = 58 \times (1 - 0.26) = 58 \times 0.74 = 42.92 \, \text{USD}.
Step-by-Step Calculation:
Step 1: Borrowing and Swapping
We previously calculated that multiple rounds of borrowing result in:
- Total BTC Accumulated: 2.53 BTC (including the original 1 BTC).
- Total BSV Borrowed: 1,207+845+591≈2,643BSV.
1,207+845+591≈2,643 BSV.1,207 + 845 + 591 \approx 2,643 \, \text{BSV}.
Step 2: Debt in USD Terms After 1 Year
- Final BSV Price: $42.92.
- Total Debt in USD: Debt in USD=2,643×42.92≈113,463USD.
Debt in USD=2,643×42.92≈113,463 USD.\text{Debt in USD} = 2,643 \times 42.92 \approx 113,463 \, \text{USD}.
Step 3: Debt in BTC Terms (Adjusted for BTC Price Appreciation)
- Final BTC Price: $200,000.
- Debt in BTC Terms: Debt in BTC=BTC PriceDebt in USD=200,000113,463≈0.567BTC.
Debt in BTC=Debt in USDBTC Price=113,463200,000≈0.567 BTC.\text{Debt in BTC} = \frac{\text{Debt in USD}}{\text{BTC Price}} = \frac{113,463}{200,000} \approx 0.567 \, \text{BTC}.
Step 4: Net BTC Holdings
- Total BTC Accumulated: 2.53 BTC.
- Debt in BTC Terms: 0.567 BTC.
- Net BTC Holdings: Net BTC=Accumulated BTC−Debt in BTC=2.53−0.567≈1.963BTC.
Net BTC=Accumulated BTC−Debt in BTC=2.53−0.567≈1.963 BTC.\text{Net BTC} = \text{Accumulated BTC} - \text{Debt in BTC} = 2.53 - 0.567 \approx 1.963 \, \text{BTC}.
Step 5: USD Value of Net BTC Holdings
- Final Net BTC Holdings: 1.963 BTC.
- Final BTC Price: $200,000.
- Net USD Value: Net USD Value=1.963×200,000≈392,600USD.
Net USD Value=1.963×200,000≈392,600 USD.\text{Net USD Value} = 1.963 \times 200,000 \approx 392,600 \, \text{USD}.
Return Calculations
BTC Return:
- Initial BTC: 1 BTC.
- Final BTC: 1.963 BTC.
- BTC Return: BTC Return=Initial BTCFinal BTC−Initial BTC×100=11.963−1×100≈96.3%.
BTC Return=Final BTC−Initial BTCInitial BTC×100=1.963−11×100≈96.3%.\text{BTC Return} = \frac{\text{Final BTC} - \text{Initial BTC}}{\text{Initial BTC}} \times 100 = \frac{1.963 - 1}{1} \times 100 \approx 96.3\%.
USD Return:
- Initial USD Value: $100,000.
- Final USD Value: $392,600.
- USD Return: USD Return=Initial USD ValueFinal USD Value−Initial USD Value×100=100,000392,600−100,000×100≈292.6%.
USD Return=Final USD Value−Initial USD ValueInitial USD Value×100=392,600−100,000100,000×100≈292.6%.\text{USD Return} = \frac{\text{Final USD Value} - \text{Initial USD Value}}{\text{Initial USD Value}} \times 100 = \frac{392,600 - 100,000}{100,000} \times 100 \approx 292.6\%.
Summary:
- Net BTC Holdings: 1.963 BTC.
- BTC Return: 96.3%.
- USD Return: 292.6% (final value = $392,600).
- Never sell your original BTC (no taxable event)